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Is there a coming foreclosure crisis and and are the conditions required to make the the real estate market collapse? As of early April, we saw almost 4m homes in forbearance (not making their payments). Now, we are approaching 5-6 million homes – that’s almost 1 in 15 homes that aren’t making their payments. This leads to Freddie Mac’s projections of low real estate price growth expectations (.4% in 2020 and .7% in 2021). It also leads to The Fed Bank at Richmond’s worst-case, bear projection of a 15% reduction in real estate prices by 2025 with a slow rebound coming then.
The best thing to do now is analyze: How much equity do we have now? How many of these loans are non-prime (bad loans) vs qualified loans? And what conditions are needed for a crisis?
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