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⚠️⚠️⚠️#Market #Crash #Sub2MeetKevin⚠️⚠️⚠️
Today, April 18, 2020, I have a substantial update from the Federal Reserve released this week and a significant signal from JP Morgan Chase (JPM) regarding market conditions and credit reserves for losses coming in quarter 2 and 3.
A lot of us are focused on a mortgage crisis, but the auto sector might end up as a bigger crisis as people skip their lease and car payments and their cars aren’t as necessary. Not only this but auto sales are expected to be close to zero in April, which explains why Ford is taking on massive loans at punishing interest rates. Concerns over the price of consumer goods (CPI and inflation readings) are growing as the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell print / create more money to stimulate the economy. However, most CPI indicators are negative or declining, except for certain goods like eggs. The Philips Curve indicating lower inflation during a time of unemployment and low oil prices may also be at play.
More cash is being deposited at banks despite the freezing of many credit lines. Commercials loans are way up and JPM’s earnings report, their latest 8-K, reveals a substantial difference that the market may not be noticing. Banks like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPM seem to be including massive provisions for credit losses to cushion losses in future earnings seasons. That could mean our negative expectations for the future might end up being wrong.
This means we might not see the w-shaped recovery a lot of us are expecting, that double-dipped recession so to speak. We’ve obviously hoping for either a v-shaped or u-shaped recovery, but many of us believe there will be a u-shaped recovery. I’m not sure this data supports that, for now.
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